Blockbuster drugs grouped by the year the first US generic or biosimilar can launch. Each block is sized by the drug's 2025 worldwide sales, the revenue its owner has to replace.
| US LOE | Drug | Company | Area | 2025 sales | Date basis | Note | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Entresto | Novartis | Cardiometabolic | $7.7B | Generics launched | US generics entered in Q3 2025. | Novartis Q4 2025 |
| 2025 | Stelara | Johnson & Johnson | Immunology | $6.1B | Generics launched | US biosimilars from Jan 2025. Sales were $10.4B in 2024, before entry. | J&J FY2025 |
| 2025 | Prolia | Amgen | Other | $4.4B | Generics launched | Denosumab biosimilars launched in the US from mid-2025. Bone health. | Amgen FY2025 |
| 2026 | Farxiga | AstraZeneca | Cardiometabolic | $8.4B | Generics launched | FDA approved the first US generics on 7 April 2026. | AZ FY2025 FDA |
| 2026 | Pomalyst | Bristol Myers Squibb | Oncology | $2.7B | Generics launched | US generics launched March 2026 under settlements. | BMS FY2025 |
| 2027 | Xtandi | Astellas / Pfizer | Oncology | ≈$6.0B | Patent-expiry estimate | Last listed US patent expires August 2027. Sales: Astellas global, ¥960.8B (fiscal year to March 2026). | Fierce Pharma |
| 2027 | Trulicity | Eli Lilly | Cardiometabolic | $4.3B | Company guidance | Lilly 10-K: US compound patent and data protection end 2027. | Lilly 10-K |
| 2027 | Ibrance | Pfizer | Oncology | $4.1B | Patent-expiry estimate | US patent term extended to March 2027. | Pfizer FY2025 Pfizer PTE |
| 2028 | Keytruda | Merck | Oncology | $31.7B | Company guidance | Primary US compound patent expires December 2028. Includes subcutaneous Keytruda Qlex. EU exclusivity to 2031. | Merck FY2025 Merck 10-K |
| 2028 | Eliquis | Bristol Myers Squibb / Pfizer | Cardiometabolic | $14.4B | Settlement / court date | US generics barred until 1 April 2028 after patent win and settlements. EU generics earlier. Sales as reported by BMS; Pfizer separately books $8.0B of alliance and product revenue. | BMS FY2025 |
| 2028 | Opdivo | Bristol Myers Squibb | Oncology | $10.1B | Company guidance | BMS guides to US biosimilar entry from 2028. Subcutaneous Opdivo Qvantig may extend the franchise. | BMS FY2025 |
| 2028 | Gardasil | Merck | Vaccines | $5.2B | Patent-expiry estimate | Key patents expire around 2028. Sales fell 39% in 2025 on weaker China demand. | Merck FY2025 |
| 2029 | Darzalex | Johnson & Johnson | Oncology | $14.3B | Patent-expiry estimate | Core US patents expire 2029. Formulation patents on subcutaneous Darzalex Faspro run longer. | J&J FY2025 |
| 2029 | Ocrevus | Roche | Neuroscience | ≈$8.4B | Patent-expiry estimate | Main US patent protection runs to March 2029. Sales CHF 7.01B. | Roche FY2025 |
| 2029 | Cosentyx | Novartis | Immunology | $6.7B | Patent-expiry estimate | Key exclusivities expected to end around 2029. | Novartis Q4 2025 |
| 2029 | Enbrel | Amgen | Immunology | $2.2B | Settlement / court date | Court-upheld patents block approved biosimilars until April 2029. | Amgen FY2025 GaBI |
| 2031 | Dupixent | Sanofi / Regeneron | Immunology | $17.8B | Company guidance | Extended US patent runs to 28 March 2031. Sanofi plans to defend exclusivity beyond that. | Regeneron FY2025 Fierce Pharma |
| 2032 | Ozempic | Novo Nordisk | Cardiometabolic | ≈$19.3B | Company guidance | Novo guides to US compound patent expiry in 2032. Generics launched in India and Canada in 2026 as patents lapsed there. Sales DKK 127.1B. | Novo AR 2025 |
| 2032 | Tagrisso | AstraZeneca | Oncology | $7.3B | Patent-expiry estimate | Some US patents expire 2032; the last listed patent runs to 2035. | AZ FY2025 |
| 2032 | Entyvio | Takeda | Immunology | ≈$6.0B | Company guidance | Takeda pushed its assumed US biosimilar entry back to 2032 on formulation and manufacturing patents. Sales ¥958.0B (fiscal year to March 2026). | Takeda FY2025 Pharma Japan |
| 2033 | Skyrizi | AbbVie | Immunology | $17.6B | Company guidance | AbbVie 10-K: US composition-of-matter patents expire 2033. | AbbVie 10-K |
| 2035 | Prevnar 20 | Pfizer | Vaccines | $6.5B | Company guidance | Pfizer 10-K: US basic product patent expires 2035. Sales are the whole Prevnar family. | Pfizer 10-K |
| 2036 | Mounjaro | Eli Lilly | Cardiometabolic | $23.0B | Company guidance | Lilly 10-K: US compound patent expires 2036. Excludes Zepbound, the same molecule sold for obesity. | Lilly 10-K |
| 2036 | Biktarvy | Gilead | Infectious disease | $14.3B | Settlement / court date | Settlements bar US generics before 1 April 2036, later than the earlier 2033 estimate. | Gilead FY2025 Fierce Pharma |
| 2037 | Trikafta | Vertex | Other | $10.3B | Patent-expiry estimate | Patents run to about 2037. Cystic fibrosis. Excludes the successor Alyftrek ($0.8B). | Vertex FY2025 |
| 2037 | Rinvoq | AbbVie | Immunology | $8.3B | Settlement / court date | September 2025 settlements bar US generics before April 2037. Consensus had assumed 2032. | AbbVie 10-K Fierce Pharma |