Verzenio (Eli Lilly) is expected to face US generic competition from 2031. Lilly 10-K: US compound patent 2031.
Verzenio's US exclusivity date is based on company guidance. The date comes from the company's own filings or guidance. Secondary patents, new formulations or litigation can still move it. It is a small-molecule drug, so copies are generics. Generic launches usually take most of the US volume within months.
Among past small-molecule drugs facing generics: Tecfidera's US sales fell to 21% of their 2019 level in its first full year of generics (2021); Revlimid's US sales fell to 96% of their 2021 level in its first full year of generics (2022) and 57% two years later. Where settlements cap generic volumes, as with Revlimid, the decline is slower. See how past cliffs played out →
No US filing found Lilly discloses no US generic challenge to Verzenio in its 2025 annual report. Its US compound patent runs to 2031.
Checked September 2026. Sources: Lilly 10-K 2025
Verzenio was selected for the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program. CMS is negotiating its Medicare price now; the price takes effect in 2028 and is due to be published by 30 November 2026. That is 3 years before US generics can launch, so Medicare revenue comes under pressure first. For the 25 drugs negotiated so far, Medicare prices came in 38% to 85% below list price. Those discounts are measured before the rebates drugmakers already pay and apply to Medicare only.
Verzenio is 8.8% of Eli Lilly's 2025 revenue ($5.7B of $65.2B). With Trulicity, Taltz, Mounjaro and Zepbound, the drugs tracked here add up to 77% of Eli Lilly's revenue losing US exclusivity by 2036.
Bars show each company's tracked drugs as a share of its total 2025 revenue. Verzenio is highlighted.