What actually happened to US sales once generics or biosimilars arrived, from the companies' own filings: benchmarks from 21 past cliffs, then four of them year by year.
From 21 past US patent cliffs, as a share of US net sales in the last full year before generics or biosimilars. Year 1 is the first full calendar year with copies on sale.
| Drug | Entry | Base year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Notes and sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SeroquelAstraZeneca | GenericsUS generics of Seroquel IR from March 2012 | 2011 | 0% | 0% | 1% | Seroquel IR only; the extended-release Seroquel XR kept its patents. AstraZeneca reported negative US sales in 2013 and 2014 after reserve adjustments for Medicaid and channel inventories; those years count as 0%. AstraZeneca Annual Report 2012 (20-F) · AstraZeneca Annual Report 2015 (20-F) |
| PlavixBristol Myers Squibb | GenericsUS generics from May 2012 | 2011 | 2% | – | – | BMS stopped reporting Plavix separately after 2013. BMS 10-K 2013 |
| CrestorAstraZeneca | GenericsMultiple US generics from 2016 | 2015 | 13% | 6% | 4% | AstraZeneca Annual Report 2017 (20-F) · AstraZeneca Annual Report 2019 (20-F) |
| ZyprexaEli Lilly | GenericsUS generics from October 2011 | 2011 | 17% | 6% | 6% | Lilly 10-K 2012 · Lilly 10-K 2014 |
| CialisEli Lilly | GenericsGeneric tadalafil from September 2018, under a settlement | 2017 | 17% | 5% | 1% | Lilly 10-K 2019 · Lilly 10-K 2021 |
| LipitorPfizer | GenericsUS generics from 30 November 2011 | 2011 | 19% | – | – | Branded US sales only; Pfizer also earned revenue from an authorized generic sold through Watson. Pfizer gives 2011 US sales as $5.0 billion and did not report US sales for later years. Pfizer 10-K 2011 · Pfizer 10-K 2012 |
| TecfideraBiogen | GenericsUS generics from August 2020 | 2019 | 21% | 13% | 8% | The 2019 base is US fumarate revenue less about $11M of Vumerity. Biogen 10-K 2020 · Biogen 10-K 2023 |
| TruvadaGilead | GenericsUS generics from October 2020 | 2020 | 23% | 8% | 6% | Gilead 10-K 2021 · Gilead 10-K 2023 |
| ZytigaJohnson & Johnson | GenericsUS generics from late 2018, after a court invalidated the patent in October | 2018 | 46% | 21% | 7% | J&J's reported sales include its own authorized generic. J&J 10-K 2018 · J&J 10-K 2020 · J&J 10-K 2023 |
| GleevecNovartis | GenericsOne licensed generic from 1 February 2016, more later in the year | 2015 | 48% | 25% | 17% | Year 1 includes about six months with a single generic on sale. Novartis 20-F 2015 · Novartis 20-F 2016 · Novartis 20-F 2018 |
| HerceptinRoche | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from 2019 | 2018 | – | 22% | 16% | Year 1 is not shown: Roche's 2020 regional figures were not available from a Roche source. Roche Finance Report 2018 · Roche Finance Report 2022 |
| AvastinRoche | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from 2019 | 2018 | – | 32% | 22% | Year 1 is not shown: Roche's 2020 regional figures were not available from a Roche source. Roche Finance Report 2018 · Roche Finance Report 2022 |
| RituxanRoche | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from late 2019 | 2018 | – | 36% | 31% | The base is 2018, the last full year before biosimilars, because Roche's 2019 regional figure was not available from a Roche source; year 1 is not shown for the same reason. Roche Finance Report 2018 · Roche Finance Report 2022 |
| LucentisRoche | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from the third quarter of 2022 | 2021 | 34% | 11% | 4% | Part of the decline is Roche moving patients to its own newer drug, Vabysmo. Roche Finance Report 2022 · Roche Finance Report 2024 · Roche Finance Report 2025 |
| StelaraJohnson & Johnson | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from January 2025 | 2024 | 57% | – | – | Only the first full year has been reported so far. J&J 10-K 2025 |
| NeupogenAmgen | BiosimilarsFirst US biosimilar (Zarxio) in 2015 | 2014 | 64% | 44% | 27% | Part of the decline is patients moving to Amgen's own longer-acting Neulasta. Amgen 10-K 2016 · Amgen 10-K 2018 |
| HumiraAbbVie | BiosimilarsUS biosimilars from 31 January 2023 | 2022 | 65% | 38% | 16% | AbbVie 10-K 2024 · AbbVie 10-K 2025 |
| NeulastaAmgen | BiosimilarsFirst US biosimilar July 2018, a second January 2019 | 2017 | 72% | 51% | 39% | Amgen 10-K 2018 · Amgen 10-K 2020 · Amgen 10-K 2023 |
| EpogenAmgen | BiosimilarsFirst US biosimilar (Retacrit) from late 2018 | 2018 | 86% | 59% | 52% | Sold mostly to dialysis providers under supply contracts, which slowed the shift. Amgen 10-K 2020 · Amgen 10-K 2023 |
| RemicadeJohnson & Johnson | BiosimilarsFirst US biosimilar from late 2016 | 2016 | 93% | 76% | 64% | Excludes US export sales. The first biosimilar won little share at first. J&J 10-K 2018 · J&J 10-K 2020 |
| RevlimidBristol Myers Squibb | Generics, restrictedVolume-limited US generics from March 2022; unlimited from 31 January 2026 | 2021 | 61% | 57% | 29% | Settlements capped generic volumes for four years, so the decline was gradual. BMS 10-K 2021 · BMS Q4 2023 results · BMS 10-K 2025 |
Medians and ranges cover every drug with a figure for that year, so the counts differ by year. US net sales as each company reports them; Roche reports in Swiss francs, compared only with its own base year. Revlimid, where settlements capped generic volumes, is shown separately and left out of the small-molecule figures. A dash means the figure was not available from a company source.
Hover or tap a point for the dollar figure; on a phone, scroll the chart sideways. Year 1 is the first calendar year with copies on the US market; for Tecfidera that year includes seven months before generics launched.
Humira: US sales were down to 65% in 2023, 38% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, measured against 2022.
Stelara: US sales were 57% in 2025, measured against 2024.
Tecfidera: US sales were down to 81% in 2020, 21% in 2021 and 13% in 2022, measured against 2019.
Revlimid: US sales were down to 96% in 2022, 61% in 2023, 57% in 2024 and 29% in 2025, measured against 2021.
How copies enter matters as much as what kind of drug it is. Tecfidera faced unrestricted generics and lost most of its US sales in its first full year of generics. Revlimid's settlements capped generic volumes for four years, so it declined gradually despite also being a small molecule. Both biologics here lost around 35% to 45% in their first year of biosimilars.
US net sales as reported in each company's filings. Past declines don't predict any specific drug's future.
| Year | US sales | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $18.62B | 100% |
| 2023 | $12.16B | 65% |
| 2024 | $7.14B | 38% |
| 2025 | $3.06B | 16% |
US biosimilars launched through 2023. Outside the US, where biosimilars arrived in 2018, AbbVie still reported $1.5B of Humira sales in 2025.
| Year | US sales | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $6.72B | 100% |
| 2025 | $3.85B | 57% |
Several biosimilars launched within months of each other. J&J also cites the Medicare Part D redesign as a factor.
| Year | US sales | vs 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $3.30B | 100% |
| 2020 | $2.68B | 81% |
| 2021 | $0.68B | 21% |
| 2022 | $0.42B | 13% |
Unrestricted generic entry. 2020 includes seven months before generics; 2019 is US fumarate revenue less about $11M of Vumerity.
| Year | US sales | vs 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.70B | 100% |
| 2022 | $8.36B | 96% |
| 2023 | $5.27B | 61% |
| 2024 | $5.00B | 57% |
| 2025 | $2.54B | 29% |
Settlements capped generic volumes for four years, so the decline was gradual. 2024 onward is from later 10-Ks, which restate 2023 about 1% lower.