Pharma Patent Cliffby readouts.io
Past patent cliffs · US sales

After the cliff

What actually happened to US sales once generics or biosimilars arrived, from the companies' own filings. Each line starts at the last full year before copies launched (100%).

US sales vs the last full year before copies

Biologic (biosimilars)Small molecule (generics)
0%25%50%75%100%Last full yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Humira 2022: $18.6B US, 100% of 2022Humira 2023: $12.2B US, 65% of 2022Humira 2024: $7.1B US, 38% of 2022Humira 2025: $3.1B US, 16% of 2022Stelara 2024: $6.7B US, 100% of 2024Stelara 2025: $3.8B US, 57% of 2024Tecfidera 2019: $3.3B US, 100% of 2019Tecfidera 2020: $2.7B US, 81% of 2019Tecfidera 2021: $0.7B US, 21% of 2019Tecfidera 2022: $0.4B US, 13% of 2019Revlimid 2021: $8.7B US, 100% of 2021Revlimid 2022: $8.4B US, 96% of 2021Revlimid 2023: $5.3B US, 61% of 2021Revlimid 2024: $5.0B US, 57% of 2021Revlimid 2025: $2.5B US, 29% of 2021Stelara 57%Revlimid 29%Humira 16%Tecfidera 13%

Hover or tap a point for the dollar figure; on a phone, scroll the chart sideways. Year 1 is the first calendar year with copies on the US market; for Tecfidera that year includes seven months before generics launched.

What the examples show

Humira: US sales were down to 65% in 2023, 38% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, measured against 2022.

Stelara: US sales were 57% in 2025, measured against 2024.

Tecfidera: US sales were down to 81% in 2020, 21% in 2021 and 13% in 2022, measured against 2019.

Revlimid: US sales were down to 96% in 2022, 61% in 2023, 57% in 2024 and 29% in 2025, measured against 2021.

How copies enter matters as much as what kind of drug it is. Tecfidera faced unrestricted generics and lost most of its US sales in its first full year of generics. Revlimid's settlements capped generic volumes for four years, so it declined gradually despite also being a small molecule. Both biologics here lost around 35% to 45% in their first year of biosimilars.

Humira

AbbVie · Biologic · US biosimilars from 31 January 2023
YearUS salesvs 2022
2022$18.62B100%
2023$12.16B65%
2024$7.14B38%
2025$3.06B16%

US biosimilars launched through 2023. Outside the US, where biosimilars arrived in 2018, AbbVie still reported $1.5B of Humira sales in 2025.

Stelara

Johnson & Johnson · Biologic · US biosimilars from January 2025
YearUS salesvs 2024
2024$6.72B100%
2025$3.85B57%

Several biosimilars launched within months of each other. J&J also cites the Medicare Part D redesign as a factor.

Tecfidera

Biogen · Small molecule · US generics from August 2020
YearUS salesvs 2019
2019$3.30B100%
2020$2.68B81%
2021$0.68B21%
2022$0.42B13%

Unrestricted generic entry. 2020 includes seven months before generics; 2019 is US fumarate revenue less about $11M of Vumerity.

Revlimid

Bristol Myers Squibb · Small molecule · Volume-limited US generics from March 2022; unlimited from 31 January 2026
YearUS salesvs 2021
2021$8.70B100%
2022$8.36B96%
2023$5.27B61%
2024$5.00B57%
2025$2.54B29%

Settlements capped generic volumes for four years, so the decline was gradual. 2024 onward is from later 10-Ks, which restate 2023 about 1% lower.

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