Pharma Patent Cliffby readouts.io
Loss of exclusivity · Oncology

Kisqali patent expiration

Kisqali (Novartis) is expected to face US generic competition from 2031. Novartis 20-F: US compound patent 2031. Sales grew 58% in 2025.

US loss of exclusivity
2031Company guidance
2025 worldwide sales
$4.8BNovartis
Therapeutic area
Oncology
Medicare negotiated price
PendingTakes effect 2028
US competition from
GenericsUS date shown

What the date means

Kisqali's US exclusivity date is based on company guidance. The date comes from the company's own filings or guidance. Secondary patents, new formulations or litigation can still move it. It is a small-molecule drug, so copies are generics. Generic launches usually take most of the US volume within months.

What past cliffs suggest

Among past small-molecule drugs facing generics: Tecfidera's US sales fell to 21% of their 2019 level in its first full year of generics (2021); Revlimid's US sales fell to 96% of their 2021 level in its first full year of generics (2022) and 57% two years later. Where settlements cap generic volumes, as with Revlimid, the decline is slower. See how past cliffs played out →

Who's lined up to copy Kisqali

No US filing found Novartis discloses no US generic challenge to Kisqali in its 2025 annual report. Its US compound patent runs to 2031.

Checked September 2026. Sources: Novartis 20-F 2025

Medicare price negotiation

Kisqali was selected for the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program. CMS is negotiating its Medicare price now; the price takes effect in 2028 and is due to be published by 30 November 2026. That is 3 years before US generics can launch, so Medicare revenue comes under pressure first. For the 25 drugs negotiated so far, Medicare prices came in 38% to 85% below list price. Those discounts are measured before the rebates drugmakers already pay and apply to Medicare only.

What's at stake for Novartis

Kisqali is 8.8% of Novartis's 2025 revenue ($4.8B of $54.5B). With Entresto, Cosentyx and Kesimpta, the drugs tracked here add up to 43% of Novartis's revenue losing US exclusivity by 2031.

Bars show each company's tracked drugs as a share of its total 2025 revenue. Kisqali is highlighted.

Other blockbusters losing US exclusivity in 2031

Sources

  1. Novartis 20-F 2025
  2. CMS: drugs selected for 2028
See all 45 drugs on the patent cliff →