The figures writers ask for most, each as a sentence you can quote, with what it counts and where it comes from. They are worked out from the same data as the rest of the site, so they change when it does.
63 blockbuster drugs that lose US exclusivity between 2025 and 2037 had $432.2B in 2025 worldwide sales.
What it counts: The drugs tracked on this site, including those whose US generics or biosimilars launched in 2025 or later. Sales are each drug's 2025 worldwide net sales as its company reports them.
Sources: Every drug, with its sources
2028 is the largest year of the patent cliff: 7 drugs expected to lose US exclusivity that year had $71.0B in 2025 sales, led by Keytruda ($31.7B), Eliquis ($14.4B) and Opdivo ($10.1B).
What it counts: Drugs whose US loss-of-exclusivity year is 2028, by 2025 worldwide sales.
Sources: Drugs going off patent in 2028
5 blockbuster drugs are expected to lose US exclusivity in 2027, with $21.6B in 2025 sales, led by Xtandi (about $6.0B), Trulicity ($4.3B) and Ibrance ($4.1B).
What it counts: Drugs whose US loss-of-exclusivity year is 2027.
Sources: Drugs going off patent in 2027
22 blockbuster drugs are expected to lose US exclusivity from 2027 through 2030. They had $151.9B in 2025 sales.
What it counts: Drugs whose US loss-of-exclusivity year falls from 2027 to 2030.
Sources: Drugs going off patent, by year
10 of the 63 drugs already face US generics or biosimilars, launched in 2025 and 2026. They had $47.0B in 2025 sales.
What it counts: Drugs with copies on the US market: Stelara, Entresto, Prolia, Farxiga, Pomalyst, Xgeva, Xarelto, Januvia, Xolair and Opsumit. Depending on when copies launched, their 2025 sales may already reflect some erosion.
Biologics make up $188.7B of the $432.2B (27 of 63 drugs). Their copies are biosimilars, which have taken share from the brand more slowly than generics in past cliffs.
What it counts: Antibodies and other biologics. Small molecules ($159.3B), peptides such as semaglutide and tirzepatide ($67.8B) and vaccines ($16.4B) make up the rest.
Sources: Every drug, with its sources
Keytruda, the largest drug tracked here, had $31.7B in 2025 sales and is expected to lose US exclusivity in 2028. 10 biosimilar makers are lined up.
What it counts: Primary US compound patent expires December 2028. Includes subcutaneous Keytruda Qlex. EU exclusivity to 2031. The makers are listed with their sources on the Keytruda page.
Sources: Merck FY2025 · Merck 10-K · Keytruda patent expiration
Merck is the most exposed company tracked here: drugs losing US exclusivity by 2030 made up 63% of its 2025 revenue ($40.9B of $65.0B). It also has the most sales at risk in dollars.
What it counts: Only the drugs tracked here, from 2025 through 2030, so a company's full exposure can be higher. For shared drugs, each company is credited with the revenue it reports from that drug. Revenue is the whole company's 2025 total.
Sources: Merck revenue at risk · Merck FY2025 · Every company, ranked
In past US patent cliffs, small-molecule drugs facing unrestricted generics kept a median 18% of their US sales in the first full year and 6% by the third. Biologics facing biosimilars kept 65% and 27%.
What it counts: Medians across 10 small-molecule and 9 biologic cases, from US sales in company 10-K and 20-F filings. Year 1 is the first full calendar year with copies on sale, against the last full year before. History, not a forecast.
26 of the 63 drugs have been selected for Medicare price negotiation. For the 15 drugs whose negotiated prices start in 2027, CMS set prices 38% to 85% below list price. Prices for 2028 are due by 30 November 2026.
What it counts: Discounts are against list price, before the rebates drugmakers already pay, so the hit to revenue is smaller than the headline percentage. Negotiated prices apply to Medicare only.
Sources: CMS: negotiated prices for 2027 · Every negotiated price
Since 2023, the 17 large drugmakers tracked here have closed 59 acquisitions of $1B or more, worth $323.3B.
What it counts: Whole-company acquisitions closed since 2023 with a headline upfront value of $1B or more. Deals announced only with an "up to" value are listed but not counted. Deal value is a price paid, not revenue, so it is shown next to revenue at risk, never netted against it.
Sources: Every deal, with its source
Sales are 2025 worldwide net sales as reported by the company that sells the drug (calendar 2025; Takeda and Astellas report April 2025 to March 2026). Non-USD figures are converted at approximate 2025 average rates and marked "about". Where two companies share a drug, the drug is counted once, at the figure its marketing company reports, and each company is credited only with what it books.
US loss of exclusivity (LOE) is the year the first US generic or biosimilar can launch. It comes from launches that have already happened, disclosed settlements and court dates, company guidance in 10-K and 20-F filings, or patent expiry when nothing firmer exists. Later patents, new formulations and litigation can move these dates, and other markets often differ.
Sources: every drug-level figure links to a primary source on its drug page: company annual and quarterly reports, SEC filings, the FDA Orange Book and Purple Book, CMS fact sheets and court records. Totals on this page add those figures up and update whenever the underlying data changes.